The much-anticipated joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise called Zapad (which translates as west) concluded on September 16. The large-scale military drills, conducted in western Russia and Belarus, reportedly involved as many as 200,000 troops from Russia, Belarus, and several other countries participating in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. That number is probably inflated and includes all military personnel participating in the drills, parallel exercises, and logistics throughout the drill’s duration.
Russian Ministry of Defense data cited by Western media reports indicate that the forces involved in the drills were many times smaller, probably numbering in just the tens of thousands. Nevertheless, most Russian and Western outlets focused on the same aspect: demonstrating an unparalleled level of military preparedness and “overwhelming force” or “saber-rattling” and “threatening posture.” Western officials (and their analysts) further accused Russia of engaging in a thinly veiled simulation of an armed conflict with NATO and Belarus’s post-revolutionary leader, Alexander Lukashenko.
Zapad 2017
This was predictably accompanied by accusations about how the Zapad 2017 exercises violated the international treaty known as the Vienna Document (which regulates military exercises, among other things). Although it is unclear what was truly problematic about Zapad 2017, Western reporting on the drills was not all warranted.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported that most (not all) soldiers involved in Zapad 2017 had returned to their permanent locations by September 4. The drills’ underlying scenario was a joint counterterrorist operation, which included the simulation of terrorist attacks and large-scale hostage situations. The forces involved included up to 5,500 soldiers from Russia and Belarus and 7,200 paratroopers with 20 aircraft.
The combined force deployed 18 naval vessels in its simulated amphibious assault on an island. The exercises, which reportedly included missile launches from Iskander-M tactical ballistic missile systems, lasted a total of 21 days. Restrictions on military aircraft in the Baltic states, however, limited air operations to three days. There were no indications that any troops remained in Belarus after September 4.
Russian military missiles
Pictures and videos from the drills released by the Russian military showed few, if any, tanks or other heavy equipment. There were also reports that Russia had cancelled several planned missile launches. Thus, it became clear that Zapad 2017 was less an exercise than a demonstration of capability and resolve in light of the prevailing international security environment.
Russia’s desire to demonstrate its military capabilities to the West was probably its main motivation for holding the drills. This is hardly new behavior, as Russia has repeatedly demonstrated its military capabilities (and resolve) during major exercises; these exercises are also used to test weapons and equipment, integrate them into service, train personnel, and generally prepare Russian forces for war.
RAND report
A RAND Corporation report released earlier this year authored by a team of Russian, American, and European experts titled From the Don to the Baltic: A New Enabling Strategy for Regional Security posits that Russia “may hold exercises on home territory under conditions that pose particular challenges to NATO.” The report further notes that this is intended to test forces in ways “that cannot be known to NATO commanders in advance,” and that “these kinds of exercises are intended to demonstrate Russia’s ability to pose military challenges to the alliance.”
Although Western media reported extensively on Zapad 2017, there were few if any dissenting voices discussing what was actually happening there. The drills were portrayed as ominous signs of Russia gearing up for war, even if the Western narrative was contradicted by facts. These Western accounts may have unwittingly played into Russia’s hands, but they did little to actually explain what the drills were about.
The reality of Zapad 2017 is that it was not something unique or new; such drills with Belarus (or other countries) have been conducted for years under the framework of Russia’s drills.
